LMDtv
The Middle East crisis is the most important issue in world politics today – and much hinges on the war’s outcome and consequences. “The shape of the world order and world politics depends on what happens in the Middle East,” says foreign policy expert and political analyst Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka.
Speaking on LMDtv on 1 July while US and Iranian officials were holding indirect, low-level technical talks through Qatari and Pakistani mediators in Doha, he said it was heartening to see the two countries attempting to resolve misunderstandings regarding the previously signed MOU.
The outcome of the war depends on several factors.
One is Israel, which Jayatilleke notes will always be a force of disruption.
“On the other hand, we recently saw former Israeli prime ministers Ehud Olmert and Ehud Barak, and other prominent former security chiefs, signing a statement condemning Jewish terrorism and violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank,” he said.
Another factor relates to the changes taking place within the United States.
Jayatilleka explained: “US President Donald Trump is pro-Israeli but Vice President JD Vance has been openly critical of Israel. New York City appointed Zohran Mamdani as its mayor and he supports the Palestinians. The Democratic Party’s base has, for the last two years, shifted in a direction that’s anti Netanyahu and sympathetic to the Palestinians.”
The next US presidential election will take place in 2028 with the midterms scheduled for November this year; and there will be an Israeli election in November too.
“If things change internally in one country, they will do so in the other as well. The combination and interaction of Israeli and US internal dynamics could help stop this terrible cycle of brutality,” he said, optimistically.
With the Middle East conflict upending the world order, the time might be right for Asia to rise.
“Asia is now perhaps stronger than it has ever been and this is mainly driven by China. If not for the Chinese economic miracle, we would all have been colonised again by this American rampage under Trump,” Jayatilleka opined.
“I’m not anti-American. I was always a great fan of presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, and I like what’s happening with young people and voters today. Yet, the present leadership is still trying to reassert US supremacy and has had to admit that maybe it’s not working.
For instance,the fact that the United States had to enter into an MOU with Iran shows that it couldn’t win the war by military means alone,” he explained.
Victory means breaking the enemy’s willpower. He observed that Iran is not broken; it is going back to where it was and standing strong.
Jayatilleka said the world is evolving and that it is a dangerous but exciting moment for us to be living in, and added: “Sri Lanka must find a way to be much smarter than it has been so far and navigate its way through these stormy seas of change.”
He shared a simple recommendation for any Sri Lankan government that’s dealing with the kind of challenges prevailing in the country today: ask yourself, what former foreign minister the late [Sri Lankabhimanya] Lakshman Kadirgamar would do?
Jayatilleka explained that Kadirgamar was able to balance the influence exerted by the US, India and China, make friends and maintain good relations. But he also knew what was in the country’s best interests, who he should turn to, for what reason and to what degree.
He continued: “Sri Lanka should have a successful foreign policy, where it can rally the majority of the global community to support it.”
Jayatilleka added that though we’re a small country, we don’t need to allow foreign powers to have a footprint on our island – and nor do we have to allow them control over our strategic assets.
“It’s not about trying to be self-sufficient but about reaching out across the world and not simply saying ‘yes’ to the nearest great power or the first guy who comes calling,” he said, in closing.
