MIDDLE EAST CROSSROADS

TRUST FRACTURES AMID US-IRAN PEACE DEAL

Sunera Bandara examines how peace talks expose shifting loyalties, deepening security concerns and fragile trust across the wider Middle East  

“To Trump: In the Middle East, loyalty is currency. If you abandon your closest friend halfway through a fight and cut deals behind their back while leaving them exposed, don’t expect anyone to trust your guarantees again,” UAE based political strategist and journalist Amjad Taha wrote on X, on 18 June.

The writer, known for his book The Deception of the Arab Spring and his extensive journalism covering geopolitics in the Middle East, was reacting to the peace talks between the US and Iran, mediated by Pakistan. The talks were held over several weeks in an effort to reach a peace agreement between the two nations.

From 28 February to 17 June, Iran had been at war with the United States and its allies, including the UK and Israel. The assassination of Iranian officials, along with longstanding Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, took place during talks between the two countries aimed at reaching an agreement regarding Iran’s nuclear power programme. 

In retaliation, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, precipitating a global fuel crisis as key maritime routes used for the transport of essential fuels became inaccessible. Iran has long been a strong contender for the position of main opponent against the United States and Israel. 

In fact, the UK’s Intelligence and Security Committee – an oversight watchdog that prioritises oversight of policies, expenditure, administration, and operations of MI5, MI6, GCHQ, Defence Intelligence, the National Cyber Force (NCF), the Joint Intelligence Organisation, the National Security Secretariat (NSS) and Homeland Security Group (HSG) – had stated that Iran views Israel as its existential enemy. 

Therefore, all of its foreign policy objectives are geared towards attacking and undermining Israel. In the ISC’s report from 2025, Iran’s foreign policy viewpoint – and by extension, its geostrategic objectives – are centred on animosity towards the West. 

The report said: “This desire to resist the West is also a key pillar of regime legitimacy, motivated by Iran’s heightened fear of being encircled by militarily superior Western and regional adversaries.” 

Iran views Israel as its archenemy and also regards its underground Christian population with deep suspicion. While Christian minority groups such as the Armenians and Assyrians – both from ancient church backgrounds – are allowed to practise their faith, Persian Christian movements are routinely suppressed because these converts predominately come from Muslim backgrounds. 

As it is understood, Shia Islam is the prevailing religion of the theocratic state of Iran. Apostasy therefore, is regarded not as a difference of opinion but an offence that can carry a prison sentence as well as execution. 

One recorded case of execution due to apostasy was that of Assemblies of God pastor Hossein Soodmand, who was a convert to Christianity. Other cases include Sunni and Sufi Muslims, who are also persecuted for their minority belief in the Shia majority country. Some 900 executions due to religious based charges were recorded in 2024. 

Since all legislation must conform to shariah law, Christian activities are rendered virtually illegal. Alongside this routine suppression comes the financial exploitation of imprisoned Christians’ families. 

Christianity, despite having emerged in the Middle East, is seen as a form of Western soft power, which the Iranian regime opposes due to its association with the US and Israel. 

This with the repression of women, who are forced to wear hijabs and face intimidation for practising Christianity, is a hallmark of the Iranian regime.

It is reported by Christianity Today, along with other outlets collecting data on the persecution of Christians around the world, that even during the attacks by Israel on Iran in which countless Iranians died, Christians continued to pray with the injured in hospital and find ways to spread the message of the gospel. 

This level of evangelism has earned the Iranian church the position of being the fastest growing church in the world – despite persecution and the threat of apostasy based death sentences, interrogation and suppression of their religion.

The US recently reached an understanding with Iran – a 14 point MOU signed by both parties, alongside an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which had caused major issues for international trade when Iran blockaded it and repeatedly declared it closed. The agreement was based on the understanding that a further 60 days would be on the table for negotiations. 

Amid all of this comes the underscoring of the nuclear question – a measure by the Americans to prevent Iranian nuclear development through screening and vetting by third parties. 

Iran, for the most part, had agreed to civilian nuclear ambitions, curtailed to renewable energy sources and non-military purposes.

Alongside the end of economic sanctions imposed directly by Washington to cripple Iran, American and Israeli strikes on Iran had reportedly resulted in civilian casualties in excess of 120,000 deaths. 

Despite this, many across the globe scoffed at what seemed to be America’s unnecessary appeasement of Iranian demands.