LEADERSHIP ROULETTE IN 2024

Tamara Rebeira examines the country’s electoral landscape in the year ahead

Yes, 2024 is an election year for Sri Lanka. But the question that hangs heavy is whether any elections will take place! According to the constitution, both a presidential poll and general elections are scheduled for this year.

The contenders at this point in time include incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) Sajith Premadasa and National People’s Power (NPP) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake. Additionally, prominent businessmen Dilith Jayaweera and Dhammika Perera have also thrown their names into the polling hat.

In the meantime, the Institute for Health Policy’s (IHP) Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) estimates of presidential election voting intent has seen the NPP leader at the forefront for many months. He is followed by Premadasa and Wickremesinghe.

This time around, the elections are likely to be dicey affairs as the votes could be split between the three main contenders, which in turn may mean there’s no clear victor with even a simple majority – meaning that while a simple majority requires 113 seats, a candidate or party securing this majority in the upcoming elections seems unlikely at this time.

Such an outcome could propel the country into turmoil and even economic uncertainty.

Meanwhile, businesspeople are likely to view the year ahead as challenging to say the least, as the impact of elections will be very real.

The term of provincial councils and local government bodies were extended by way of gazettes with no reasons cited for their extension. Critics however, have drawn conclusions that these elections were delayed because the government would likely face defeat.

A defeat for the government may have led to putting Sri Lanka’s IMF bailout package in jeopardy.

So was it a good decision?

The matter is still under deliberation…

Meanwhile, a cause for rejoicing could be a statement by the president, who has said that in accordance with the constitution, the presidential election is scheduled for 2024, followed by general elections and provincial council polls in early 2025.

The last presidential election took place on 16 November 2019. Consequently, the next election must be held by no later than 16 November 2024.

On the other hand, the rumour mill is mooting general elections ahead of the presidential poll in 2024.

US Ambassador to Sri Lanka Julie Chung has also chimed in, stating that timely elections are important to any democracy and the United States is also hopeful that according to the constitution, local government, parlia­mentary and provincial council elections will take place.

Additionally, Minister of State in the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) Anne-Marie Trevelyan has said that “the UK believes transparent, democratic governance is in the interests of all people and long-term stability of every nation. We raise the importance of free and fair elections in our discussions with South Asian governments, and with opposition parties and others.”

Some argue that Budget 2024 was aligned with upcoming elections – with numerous concessions granted in terms of welfare. Contradicting this notion however, State Minister of Finance Ranjith Siyambalapitiya asserted that the budget proposals weren’t formulated for the sake of short-term popularity or with elections in mind.

As the nation navigates these political intricacies, the upcoming elections will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of Sri Lanka’s governance and economy.

The expectations and concerns of the citizens coupled with the international community’s keen interest highlight the significance of this electoral juncture. And only time will reveal the outcomes and repercussions that follow, making it a pivotal year in our democratic journey.