By Vijitha Yapa

Once again, The Economist has published how it views world developments in 2024 – and what it assumes will change this year. The return of Donald Trump as President of the US, the global consequences and prospect of trade wars where tariffs on goods from China for example, may increase by 60 percent and others by up to 20 percent.

What lies ahead for America’s allies is one of the key issues that is covered in detail. Another point of concern for us is whether under new crackdowns on immigration, Sri Lankan students studying at US universities will be affected. Luckily, we are not from the Middle East… but Trump is unpredictable.

And there’s the dilemma that NATO countries and Europe are facing. Trump has said that the war in Ukraine could end in a day but does this involve conceding some areas of the war-torn nation to Russia?

The US has provided massive military assistance to Ukraine in recent months under former president Joe Biden, which cannot be expected from a Trump administration.

Sri Lankan soldiers have also been involved on both sides of the war in Ukraine, and there are accusations that they’ve hardly received any compensation despite some having given their lives to protect the side they are fighting for.

The Middle East is another cause for concern, where Israel’s war policies have made it a pariah of the world due to its actions against Palestinians and the destruction of Gaza, which it seeks to expand as its territory.

Editor of the World Ahead 2025 Tom Standage notes that 2025 has been designated the year of quantum science and technology by the UN.

He notes that Trump’s policy in the United States will have both friends and foes, and questions the solidarity of America’s alliances. Standage believes this could lead to geopolitical realignments, heighten tensions and even nuclear proliferation.

Standage says that in general, incumbent parties suffered badly in the unprecedented wave of elections.

Some were ousted, as in the US and UK (though he does not mention the overthrow of the elites who ruled Sri Lanka for over 70 years), while India’s PM Narendra Modi (who boasted of winning a massive majority with over 400 seats) suffered at the general election and was forced into a coalition. A few others including Taiwan were forced into cohabitation.

An interesting topic is raised by Leo Mirani, Asia Correspondent for The Economist: a convicted 78 year old felon has been elected to lead the most powerful nation in the world.

While age limits are set in most professions, especially in roles that carry a heavy responsibility such as pilots and even automobile drivers, the argument arises as to why there are no age limits for politicians.

One wonders whether this was also an issue where former president Ranil Wickremesinghe was concerned – the electorate opted for a young leader, instead of an ageing politico who has been the leader of the United National Party (UNP) for years, regardless of whether he wins or loses elections.

In the US, two-thirds of its senators and half the representatives were born before 1964, while supreme court judges are appointed for life. Mirani points out that America’s gerontocracy is a symptom of deeper problems rather than the cause of them.

Sri Lanka’s election results caught many Westerners by surprise – President Anura Kumara Dissanayake isn’t a Marxist zealot; he has toned down his party’s rhetoric and pushed for market reforms. He is described as a politician untested in power, having only been an agriculture minister 20 years ago.

The correspondent states that he will probably lead an unstable coalition that needs to undertake painful economic reforms – but the article appears to have been written before his party won 159 seats in a 225 seat parliament.

On India, Simon Cox – China Economics Editor of The Economist – points out that India’s first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru was an urbane socialist who once said that India’s spectacle of organised religion filled him with horror, and that the temples of modern India were dams and other marvels of infrastructure.

Cox notes that Modi is also heavily reliant on public investment with substantial spending on highways, railways and airports – his proposed capital investment up to March this year is US$ 130 billion.

How does China feel about Trump’s return?

China Editor of The Economist Roger McShane says China’s political elite judge Trump to be intellectually incurious and self-interested, and view his re-election as further evidence of America’s decadence and decline.