TURKISH STRONGMAN WINS PRESIDENCY

Saro Thiruppathy discusses the recent victory of President Recep Erdoğan at the polls and the concerns that Türkiye’s NATO allies have

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won a historic third term in office on 28 May. He has held this office since 2014 and is the country’s longest serving leader. Erdoğan beat his secular challenger Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the Republican People’s Party with 52.2 percent of the vote.

While the US and its allies are extremely concerned about Erdoğan’s victory in the context of his close relations with Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be overjoyed that his “dear friend” will continue to hold office for the next five years.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS Since Türkiye has the second largest military force among members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Erdoğan’s friendship with the enemy is disconcerting to his allies.

He is a maverick, and the West is generally on the backfoot as it tries to anticipate his plans and actions in the context of NATO policies.

For instance, though Ankara supplied drones to Ukraine in response to the invasion by Russia, it has also exploited the war by purchasing Russian energy at low rates and profiting from busting NATO sanctions through selective trade with Moscow. Erdoğan continues to irk his NATO allies and the EU by strengthening his relationship with Putin on the basis that the two countries have a mutual need for each other.

He refuses to join Western nations in the imposition of sanctions against Russia and has in fact purchased antiaircraft defence systems from Moscow.

As expected, this has caused quite a furore among the allies.

Ankara was very useful when it played a critical role in brokering a deal between Russia and Ukraine to allow the shipment of the latter’s grain. It has also offered to help broker a peace deal to end the war – but NATO isn’t interested.

Meanwhile, another thorn in NATO’s side is Erdoğan’s continuous refusal to allow Sweden to gain membership of the organisation. Türkiye claims that Stockholm has been too lenient with terrorist organisations including Kurdish groups and those associated with the attempted coup in 2016. However, Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg maintains that Sweden has taken significant steps to address Ankara’s concerns.

But Türkiye isn’t alone in the standoff against Sweden joining NATO. Hungary has also been digging its heels in and refusing to sign off on the membership issue. It claims that Stockholm has always been hostile towards Budapest and cites Swedish criticism of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán over the perceived erosion of the rule of law in Hungary.

INTERNAL AFFAIRS Like most incumbent leaders prior to an election, Erdoğan drew his people’s attention away from the soaring cost of living crisis by increasing pensions and salaries, and discounting domestic energy bills.

He also raised the issues of security and family values to emotionally motivate his voter base.

But there’s no running away from the poor state of the Turkish economy. During his victory speech, Erdoğan noted that inflation was the primary issue facing the country and accepted that it needs to be addressed urgently.

Inflation peaked at 85 percent late in 2022 but dropped to 44 percent in April. However, independent economists are disputing these official figures and claiming that it actually stands at 105 percent. Meanwhile, the value of the Turkish Lira is dropping even though the government had sought to protect it by selling foreign currency reserves.

In the first week of June, the lira hit a record low against the US Dollar after having lost almost 80 percent of its value over a period of five years. Economists maintain that this is mainly due to Erdoğan’s novel policy of reducing interest rates to fight inflation.

He wants to wean Türkiye away from being economically dependent on its Western allies. In March, Saudi Arabia deposited US$ 5 billion in the Turkish central bank through its Saudi Fund for Development. Meanwhile, Moscow has deferred Ankara’s payments for natural gas and contributed billions of dollars towards the establishment of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, which is Türkiye’s first nuclear power station.

Revenue from tourism over the summer, more competitive exports due to the weakening lira and the low demand for energy at home will help Erdoğan breathe easier for the next few months.

But the crisis could very well catch up with him in the medium term and economists believe that he’ll have to change his economic poli­cies since the current situation is untenable.

HUMAN RIGHTS Türkiye’s human rights record and increasing authoritarianism have concerned many of its Western allies – and several had hoped that Kılıçdaroğlu would succeed at the polls.

He had promised the West that he’d change the human rights situation, and reset relations between Türkiye and NATO.

However, victory for Erdoğan prevailed and he will continue to agitate his NATO allies over the next five years at least.

Erdoğan continues to irk his NATO allies and the EU by strengthening his relationship with Putin on the basis that the two countries have a mutual need for each other