INFLATION TRENDS DOWN

The cost of living heads south and perceptions about the future improve

For the first time since March last year, the PepperCube Cost of Living Index (CLI) has fallen to the eighth percentile – in April, the index stood at 89.7 basis points compared to 91.3 in the month prior.

The downward trend in the CLI in recent months has been notable – in February, the barometer registered 95.6 points.

And the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI) also continues to head south – in April, the free fall to 35.3 percent year on year (from 50.3% in the previous month) comes as welcome news even though the comparison is against 12 months ago when prices were spiralling upwards.

For the record, the CCPI breached 50 percent (year on year) for as long as nine months until April. As for comparisons however, year on year inflation was only marginally below 30 percent (29.8%) in April 2022.

Meanwhile, 95 percent (that’s three percentage points lower than in the preceding month) of executives polled in April say the cost of living in the preceding 12 months escalated ‘highly’ or ‘moderately.’

In April last year, the naysayers count stood at 97 percent.

Sentiment regarding the cost of living in the next 12 months has remained the same as in March with 86 percent of the sample population (versus 95% two months ago) expecting prices to increase ‘highly’ or ‘moderately’ during this period.

This measure of anxiety about the cost of living stood at 95 percent a year ago.

In the meantime, the percentage of respondents who say they ‘will not have a chance at all’ to purchase non-food goods and services or be able to save in the next 12 months has nudged up to 59 percent – versus 57 percent in March.

The same proportion of the sample population said so at this time last year.

FOOTNOTE An index based on a monthly survey, the CLI aims to measure and understand perceptions regarding the cost of living as opposed to reported or official inflation.
– LMD