UNITY IS SCARCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST TODAY

Saro Thiruppathy is on the bloody road to Damascus that’s been pounded by rebel forces and the overthrow of former president Bashar al-Assad

As the Arab Spring spread across the Middle East in 2011, there were protests and pro-democracy rallies in Syria against its then president Bashar al-Assad and his Ba’athist government.

Many of the protests, which were violently suppressed, resulted in thousands of deaths and the imprisonment of civilians. An insurgency with a range of militia followed; and by 2012, it had descended into civil war. Subsequently, the Syrian protagonists took the war over to Lebanon as well.

Foreign players such as the US, Russia, Turkey and Iran played their part in the war, and through various rebel groups. The de facto head of Syria today – Abu Mohammad al-Julani – is also the leader of the rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Iran, Russia and Hezbollah provided military support to Assad while a US led international coalition had been conducting air and ground operations since 2014. By late 2015, Russia was also conducting air strikes and ground operations in Syria.

The US led coalition fought the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), factions of al-Qaeda and some pro-Assad forces, while supporting the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), both militarily and logistically.

Meanwhile, Turkey occupied parts of northern Syria and fought the SDF, Assad’s forces and the ISIS while supporting the Syrian National Army (SNA). And Israel is still fighting Iran and its elements inside Syria, which are supporting Hezbollah.

ISLAMIC STATE Taking advantage of the disaster in Syria and the disintegrating military situation in Iraq, ISIS militants conquered swathes of territory in northwestern Iraq and eastern Syria in 2014.

By the end of 2015, it declared a caliphate and ruled a population of about 12 million people using its interpretation of Islamic law. That was a brutal time for both residents and foreigners alike. The caliphate had more than 30,000 fighters and an annual budget that exceeded US$ 1 billion.

After battling forces from the US, Iraq and Kurdistan in 2019 however, ISIS was eventually defeated in the Middle East. Nevertheless, it still controls a large following, and territory in Northern and Sahelian Africa.

ASSAD FLEES On 9 December, Russian state media reported that al-Assad and his family had arrived in Moscow, and been granted asylum after HTS entered Damascus.

Al-Assad’s family controlled Syria for more than 50 years and the deposed president dealt brutally with any opposition since the Arab Spring.

This instability was what made Syria the perfect location for extremist activities, and an ideal place for an international proxy war between the US and Russia.

While the US led coalition seems pleased with the situation in Syria, many world leaders aren’t quite so heady about the developments since there’s a possibility that another Islamic State (IS) could be established by al-Julani and his crew.

WHO IS JULANI? Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, is no lily-white saviour of the Syrian people. He was a Jihadist fighter with ISIS and al-Qaeda at one time, and had a 10 million dollar bounty on his head until he wrestled control from al-Assad.

However, al-Julani’s careful attempt at rehabilitating his image as a statesman rather than a Jihadist rebel leader impressed the US so much that it delisted the HTS from its terror group and lifted the US$ 10 million bounty.

For all intents and purposes, al-Julani’s transformation influenced even his wardrobe; he now sports Western style clothes. By eventually distancing himself from ISIS and al-Qaeda, and positioning HTS as a politically viable force in Syria, he became the West’s flavour of the month.

HTS is the dominant force in the Idlib region, which is home to about four million people, many of whom are internally displaced persons (IDPs) who had fled the other provinces. Since al-Julani wanted to show that HTS could wage jihad and also govern effectively, the rebels crushed and marginalised other factions to consolidate power.

Though he is presenting himself as a moderate jihadist today, the US isn’t totally confident that Syria won’t follow in Afghanistan’s footsteps after the Taliban resumed power in 2021.

ISRAEL VS IRAN Meanwhile, Israel seems thrilled that al-Assad is out but it recently continued to bomb Syria unmercifully while establishing a buffer zone between the Golan Heights and Syrian territory. This was mainly to demolish the nexus between Iran’s Axis of Resistance and Hezbollah, which the Israelis have fought over recent months.

Tehran is in a quandary since its domestic environment remains extremely volatile and social upheaval is a distinct possibility. This could force the establishment of military nuclear programmes in neighbouring Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and cause problems for Iran. So it is adopting a ‘wait and see’ attitude, and revisiting its plans in response to the fall of Damascus.

Much of the Middle East is plagued by opportunism, enmity, disunity, disloyalty and deceit, and true brotherhood is a scarce commodity.