By Vijitha Yapa

This annual publication by The Economist offers predictions for the year ahead. And its editors say that 2024 is the largest election year in history but comment wryly that the quality of democracies varies widely.

According to them, 76 coun­tries that are home to some 4.2 billion people (close to half the world’s population) are due to hold national elections.

Commenting that quantity isn’t quality, they point out while elections should allow people to choose who should govern them, a prerequisite is that the polls should be free and fair to make the results meaningful.

They also say that all sections of society should be represented in a competitive party system and add that without it, democracy is a sham.

According to the ‘democracy index’ produced annually by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), only 43 of the 76 countries will have free and fair voting. It adds that while the US, India and Indonesia are ‘flawed democracies,’ there’s a possi­bility that changes may occur.

One country that the world will be watching with interest is India where Prime Minister Narendra Modi is riding strong and expected to win handsomely. But there is global concern about his Hindutva policies that aim for Hindu domination over other religious communities.

The Indian National Congress wasn’t successful at state elections in late 2023 and the lacklustre leadership of Rahul Gandhi hasn’t helped. He
didn’t get a lucky break as in Sri Lanka where President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who lost everything in 2019, ended up as the country’s chief executive with support from the very MPs who opposed him.

The publication predicts that Wickremesinghe will seek reelection but probably fail and the National People’s Power’s (NPP) Anura Kumara Dissanayake is best positioned to replace him.

Over the past decade, Modi has taken India forward from being the world’s 10th largest economy to become its fifth in size. Amid his successes however, the defeat of the Indian cricket team by Australia in the T20 Cricket World Cup 2023 must have shocked Modi since money and power aren’t necessarily winning factors in certain arenas.

The main focus on elections will be what happens in the US with former president Donald Trump trying to make a comeback. He is considered to have a one in three chance of regaining the world’s most powerful presi­dency but its consequences will affect the planet at large.

If he regains power, Europe may take more responsibility for issues such as Ukraine and even grant NATO membership to the war-torn nation.

The Economist also predicts the Democratic nominee in the US will win 61 percent of the electoral and popular vote while the Republican nominee may garner 25 percent of the electoral (but not the popular) vote.

Events in the Middle East and pro-Palestinian demonstrations around the world have shown that Gaza is not a cakewalk for either Israel or Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The US provided millions of dollars’ worth of arms to Israel, which has contributed to the massacre of innocent Pales­tinians.

This has placed America in a dilemma: as a champion of human rights – including supporting demands by the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in Geneva for an inquiry into Sri Lanka’s actions in its civil war – its stance on Israel makes its words sound hollow.

Conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza have thrown up the threat of China attempting to move the Taiwan situation to the foreground. But events this year will be significant and The Economist’s Foreign Editor Patrick Foulis says 2024 promises to be a make or break year for the post-1945 world order.

He points out that the West’s share of world GDP is falling to 50 percent for the first time since the 19th century. And India and Türkiye are making a lot of noise about the way the world is heading.

Deputy Editor Edward Carr feels that if Palestinians are radicalised, Hamas could rise from the ashes to become a symbol of resistance. He says that the Middle East is a graveyard of plans for peace but its continuous pursuit is the only fresh idea left.

The Economist’s Russia Editor Arkady Ostrovsky opines that to fight a long war, Russia needs more men, officers, weapons and mass mobilisation. But he believes that over the last few months, more than a million educated Russians may have fled, fearing repression and mobilisation.

In the past, President Vladimir Putin dealt with a decline in his approval by starting a war; but it’s not the case anymore, notes the editor.

This is a must read for global leaders who wish to know the direction in which the world is heading – as predicted by The Economist.