The Strait of Hormuz is ‘leaking’ oil
New York — One of the biggest mysteries of the global economy is why the oil market has remained so calm during one of the greatest supply shocks in history.
The Strait of Hormuz has been paralyzed by three months of war — a nightmare scenario that few thought was possible before the war with Iran started. Visible traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains sparse, estimated at just 15% of pre-war levels, according to JPMorgan.
Yet oil futures have not skyrocketed to the dangerous levels forecasters feared — at least not yet.
One theory is that a surprisingly large amount of crude is escaping the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, helping the global energy system absorb the historic shock. Tankers carrying these so-called “clandestine flows” may be dodging the blockade by turning off transponders to avoid detection, experts told CNN.
June 10, 2026 – CNN Business
JPMorgan estimated that clandestine flows amounted to about 2.1 million barrels per day over the final two weeks of May. That would represent a small but notable chunk of the 15.6 million barrels that flowed through the Strait of Hormuz per day before the war.
“Despite the ongoing naval blockade and the steep decline in commercial traffic, surprising volumes of crude and petroleum products still appear to be transiting the Strait,” Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of global commodities strategy, wrote in a client note last week.
