THE ECONOMY
CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM PREVAILS
Confidence levels plateau as optimism subtly lingers amid persistent concerns
Concerns expressed by the business community in October largely mirror that of the previous month, as the anxiety voiced in September continues to weigh on the corporate community.
Overall, economic sentiment shows little sign of improvement with optimism guarded yet resilient in the wake of lingering uncertainties.
THE ECONOMY The latest LMD-PEPPERCUBE Business Confidence Index (BCI) survey, conducted in the first week of October, reveals that optimism has strengthened despite a tempered outlook.
A notable 74 percent of respondents believe the economy will ‘improve’ over the next 12 months, reflecting an uptick of three points from September. And nearly a quarter (23%) expect the economy to ‘stay the same’ – that’s two points down from the previous month – while only three percent anticipate it will ‘get worse’ (down 1% from September).
SALES VOLUMES Expectations about sales volumes have remained largely steady since August with 81 percent of polled executives anticipating an improvement over the next 12 months.
And 15 percent of executives polled by PepperCube Consultants believe their sales numbers will ‘stay the same,’ down by one point from the previous month.
Only four of the 100 respondents surveyed expect sales volumes to ‘get worse,’ which is a one point increase from September.
However, the proportion reporting an ‘increase’ in sales volumes fell to 63 percent compared to the previous month’s two-thirds.
Additionally, 24 percent say their volumes ‘stayed the same,’ a marginal one point uptick from the preceding month (23%), while 13 percent report a decline – that’s a three point rise from the 10 percent recorded a month ago.
Looking ahead, expectations of higher sales volumes over the next three months have spiked with 74 percent of respondents projecting an increase – that’s a notable 10 point jump from 64 percent in September.
A quarter (25%) of the sample population believe their sales volumes will ‘stay the same’ (down 5% from the previous month) and one percent anticipate their numbers will ‘get worse’ over the next three months, reflecting a five percentage point drop.
INVESTMENT CLIMATE Confidence in the investment climate weakened once again in October with only seven percent viewing the outlook as ‘very good’ – down from September’s 12 percent.
Those viewing the future as ‘good’ also fell – that’s eight percentage points lower – to a quarter (25%).
In contrast, 54 percent view the investment outlook as ‘fair,’ marking a five percentage point increase from 49 percent in September.
Meanwhile, the share of poll participants who rate the investment climate as being ‘poor’ or ‘very poor’ more than doubled to 14 percent (up from 6% in the preceding month).
EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS Forty percent of businesses say they plan to ‘increase’ staff numbers, which is four points higher than in September.
What’s more, 54 percent disclose that they intend to maintain the status quo, reflecting a four point decline. And only six percent may consider downsizing in the next six months (unchanged from the month prior).
