ELECTIONS AND ALL THAT JAZZ

Dr. Jehan Perera discusses the nation’s prevailing sociopolitical landscape

Under President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s leadership, the government seems to be taking the words of 18th century English political critic Alexander Pope to heart: “For forms of government let fools contest; whatever is best administered is best.”

Wickremesinghe appears to be thriving in the face of the challenges he is encountering. There is recognition of his contribution to bring the chaos that existed a year ago to an end no sooner he was elected president by parliamentary vote. And there’s a sense of order in the land too – although the downside is the stabilising of the very status quo that brought the country to a sorry pass.

His achievements are seen in the restoration of order in the aftermath of the aragalaya and dealing with the IMF to grant its largest loan so far to the country.

Inflation fell sharply in April as the higher base effects from last year kicked in while commodities prices are cooling on the back of easing supply conditions and the relative strength of the Sri Lankan Rupee. This has helped reduce the prices of imported goods as well.

The message that’s going out is that the president is the best man for the job.

Shortly after the IMF facility was granted, the government reduced the price of petrol and diesel substantially; it also brought down the price of several other essential commodities. And it did so again on the day before May Day.

Taking up economic challenges that are unpopular is also seen as the president doing what needs to be done. There’s speculation that one of the reasons why opposition political parties are keeping quiet about elections is because they prefer Wickremesinghe to continue with the hard tasks.

The manner in which he dealt with the strike action by petroleum sector workers is a sign that the government won’t yield on what needs to be done. In addition, the leaders of the strike action were sent on compulsory leave pending possible dismissal. The strikers complained that the army was forcing them to work.

Meanwhile, the government is proceeding with its plan to privatise many state owned enterprises (SOEs), which have been loss makers over the past decades due to incompetence, overstaffing and corruption.

This initiative has been praised by sections of the community as a way to reduce the drain on state coffers and increase the productivity of such national assets. On the other hand, the administration’s efforts to sell state enterprises, which would entail downsizing staff, is causing anxiety among those who are the likely casualties of this restructuring process.

Large numbers of workers in the SOEs will possibly be laid off in the process of economic rationalisation. They will be leaving jobs where they were by and large comfortable with generous overtime payments.

A powerful social media campaign is claiming that the economy is on the mend and that opposition politicians are lining up to join the government. This may impress those who are above the poverty line and able to afford the current prices.

But those who are below the poverty line know the reality: no amount of social media campaigns will convince them that they’re better off when they know that they are worse off. Meanwhile, the government has continued to resist calls for local government elections, which are overdue.

It should be aware that at the local level, people are suffering as a result of the massive price hikes – for example, over 200 percent on the cost of their children’s school textbooks; let alone their electricity bills, which have shot up by more than 300 percent.

Today, there are people living in two worlds in Sri Lanka – one set is able to ride the wave and perhaps even rise above it while the other is trapped in the undercurrents… and being dragged down.

There are reports that the president (and his team of advisors) believe that he has the best chance to win a presidential election held at this time when his stock is high. However, the constitution doesn’t permit him to call an early presidential election because only a president who is elected by the people can do so.

A president who is elected by parliament has to serve the remainder of the term left by the former head of state who stepped down. If Wickremesinghe wants to call an early presidential election, he needs to amend the constitution and will need the support of the opposition for that.

The question is whether the opposition would want to support the call for an early presidential election at a time of Wickremesinghe’s choosing.