THE ROVING DIPLOMAT
TRIBUTE series
JULY 2002
BETWEEN HAMMER AND ANVIL
Indo-Pakistani tensions and the Middle East impasse dominate headlines
In recent times, the global scene has faced two critical challenges to peace and security – the chronic and unpredictable peace process in the Middle East, and the escalation of tensions between Pakistan and India over Kashmir.
Of the two, the tensions on the Indian subcontinent seem more dangerous because of military preparations on both sides, and the threatening language of President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan and India’s Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The Middle East in contrast hovers on the brink of war and peace alternatively.
Indo-Pakistani tensions have their origins in the dispute over Kashmir, which has occasioned two wars. And the latest escalation is a continuation of this rivalry that was aggravated by the amassing of armies on both sides of the Line of Control, as well as continuous artillery duels.
To this end, the most recent provocation is India’s belief that the attack on the Indian parliament last December was carried out by Pakistani militants. It’s believed that this reveals an extension of their operations on the Kashmiri border where it is alleged that they’re colluding with Pakistani militants in Kashmir.
The Indian government is incensed by these activities, which it claims are linked to Pakistani aspirations in Kashmir. It has reacted with warnings and threats.
Indeed, the language of the two leaders and their preparations on the Kashmiri border raised the prospect of a military conflict, possibly leading to a dreaded nuclear war.
It was this scenario that occasioned a determined effort by external powers – notably the US and the UK – to intercede and restrain the would-be combatants. This came in the form of a number of peace envoys from the US and the UK interceding with the two leaders including a visit by British premier Tony Blair.
There were also missions by US Secretary of State Colin Powell and his deputy Richard Armitage urging both countries to exercise restraint. It seems that these overtures have been fruitful in easing tensions since they were followed by actions and pledges, from both India and Pakistan.
India has opened its airspace to Pakistani flights, and is likely to restore rail and air links too in addition to sending its diplomatic staff back to its high commission in Islamabad. Musharraf pledged to end cross-border terrorism permanently and dismissed the possibility of war.
Armitage observed that Indo-Pakistani tensions were down measurably and that India was likely to take further measures to ease the situation. It would seem that a crisis has been averted for now at least, and that the way is open for constructive approaches.
However, though the danger of aggression by militants remains, the reassuring statements by both leaders suggest that they will prevent any escalation of violence.
The crisis in the Middle East has lapsed in characteristic manner into another armed confrontation. This time, Israeli troops with more than 70 tanks encircled the headquarters of the President of the Palestinian National Authority Yasser Arafat in Ramallah.
This invasion is in retaliation for the continued provocation by Palestinian militants including the attacks by a suicide bomber, which killed 17 Israelis in early June. The incursion has been justified by Israeli officials due to the inability of the Palestinian Authority to control the militants despite repeated undertakings to this effect by Arafat.
The primary obstacle is the inability of both sides to agree on the basis for a peace agreement. Arafat is insisting on the recognition of a Palestinian state and Israel has reservations about the viability of such an entity. There’s a need therefore, for Arafat to propose an acceptable structure.
And the proposed State of Palestine was the subject of discussion between Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and US President George W. Bush. Mubarak emphasised the need for US help to make a Palestinian state a reality since that would be the only guarantee for lasting peace in the Middle East.
However, with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s determination to destroy the Palestinian Authority – which is being held responsible for the recurring violence – and Bush’s inability to restrain Israel, the future for peace in the Middle East remains as distant as ever.
Meanwhile, the US is ostensibly engaged in its war on terror and the immediate question is what its next target will be.
Iraq is a possibility since the US believes that President Saddam Hussein has a secret programme to build nuclear weapons, and also that Iraq possesses biological and chemical weapons. But Iraq has denied these charges and offered to provide proof refuting these allegations.
The most recent provocation is India’s belief that the attack on the Indian parliament last December was carried out by Pakistani militants
