THE ECONOMY
Economic sentiment remained largely steady in February, although certain indicators suggest that the corporate community continues to adopt a cautiously mixed outlook.
While there is optimism in certain quarters, businesspeople remain mindful of potential uncertainties in the broader economic landscape.
CAUTION GUIDES CONFIDENCE
Economic confidence remains firm despite an increasingly nuanced outlook
THE ECONOMY The latest LMD-PEPPERCUBE Business Confidence Index (BCI) survey, conducted in the first week of February, reflects a marginal uptick in economic optimism, following a temporary setback in December when confidence fell sharply in the aftermath of Cyclone Ditwah.
More than half of poll respondents (57%) now expect the economy to ‘improve’ over the next 12 months – a two point increase from January. And 36 percent believe conditions will ‘stay the same,’ marking a one point decline from the previous month.
Only seven percent expect the economy to ‘get worse’ (a 1% drop from January).
SALES VOLUMES Expectations regarding sales volumes eased marginally, although a clear majority (64%) still anticipate an improvement over the next 12 months. This represents a three point decline from January.
Meanwhile, 28 percent of executives expect their sales volumes to ‘stay the same’ – down one percent from the previous month. And eight of the 100 respondents surveyed believe sales volumes will ‘get worse’ – up four percentage points from the preceding month.
Fifty-nine percent of poll participants – unchanged from last month – report an ‘increase’ in sales volumes.
Additionally, one in three (30%) say their sales volumes ‘stayed the same’ (reflecting a three point decline from January’s 33%). And only 11 percent report a decrease – up three points from the eight percent recorded a month earlier.
Looking ahead to the next three months, sentiment has softened noticeably as slightly over half (55%) of respondents project an increase – that’s a nine point drop from January’s 64 percent.
And around a third (34%) of the sample population say their sales volumes will ‘stay the same’ (up 1% from the previous month) while 11 percent expect their numbers to ‘get worse’ over the next three months – an eight percentage point increase from the month prior.
INVESTMENT CLIMATE Confidence in the investment climate remained broadly stable with 15 percent viewing the outlook as ‘very good.’
However, the proportion that says the future looks ‘good’ declined by five percentage points to 29 percent.
In contrast, 42 percent view the investment outlook as ‘fair,’ which reflects a modest three percentage point increase from the previous month.
Meanwhile, 10 percent perceive the investment climate as ‘poor’ or ‘very poor’ – that’s a one point uptick from the preceding month.
EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS More than half of polled respondents (54%) say they intend to ‘increase’ their staff numbers – this represents a substantial 17 point hike from January.
Meanwhile, 43 percent intend to maintain current workforce levels (up 15%) while only three percent expect to downsize in the next six months – two points lower than the month prior.
– LMD
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