THE ‘GREAT WAIT’ ECONOMY

Biz people opted to ‘wait and see’ ahead of the 21 September presidential poll

As PepperCube Consultants notes, a majority of respondents were “uncertain about the eventual election outcome, which will determine the trajectory of the economy and business volumes” going forward.

THE ECONOMY In September, only eight percent of survey participants expressed optimism about the economy ‘improving’ over the next 12 months, which is a notable drop of eight percentage points from the previous month.

Sixty-eight percent believe the economy will ‘stay the same’ (a 25% increase from August) while 24 percent expect it to ‘get worse,’ reflecting a fall of 17 points.

SALES VOLUMES A shift in sentiment among salespeople is evident with their concerns about the economic outlook increasing and optimism declining since June.

The latest poll reveals that only eight percent of executives expect their sales volumes to improve over the next 12 months – a 10 percentage point decrease from August’s projections.

Nearly seven in 10 (69%) survey participants believe their sales numbers will ‘stay the same,’ marking a substantial rise from 41 percent in August. And 23 percent anticipate their sales volumes will ‘get worse,’ ending a four month run of pessimism recorded at 41 percentage points.

And only five percent reported an ‘increase’ in sales volumes over the past 12 months (down 14% from August’s 19%).

Additionally, 69 percent said their sales numbers ‘stayed the same’ – that’s a whopping 28 percentage point increase from the previous month. Twenty-six percent reported lower sales volumes (vs. 40% a month ago).

Looking ahead, expectations of higher sales volumes over the next three months have diminished, with a mere four percent of respondents expressing optimism about their numbers ‘getting better’ (a 15% drop from the preceding month).

Most notably, nearly seven in 10 (69%) anticipate their sales volumes will ‘stay the same,’ reflecting a massive 29 percentage point rise in those who were sitting on the fence at the time of the poll in early September.

Meanwhile, slightly over a quarter (27%) expect their sales volumes to ‘get worse’ over the next three months, which reflects a 14 point rise compared to August.

INVESTMENT CLIMATE The previous month’s perceptions continued into September with only two percent rating Sri Lanka’s investment prospects as ‘very good.’ And the percentage of participants who view the outlook as ‘good’ rose by one point to 58 percent.

Twenty-eight percent consider the investment climate to be ‘fair,’ which is a sizeable increase from 17 percent in August.

EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS A mere four percent of businesses plan to ‘increase’ their staff numbers, which represents an 11 percentage point fall from the 15 percent recorded in August.

In contrast, a vast majority (87%) intend to maintain their current staff levels – up from 79 percent in the month prior.

And nine of the 100 respondents (August – 6%) say they might consider downsizing within the next six months.

– LMD