THE ECONOMY

CONFIDENCE TAKES A HEAVY BLOW

Economic sentiment plummets as uncertainty clouds the broader outlook

THE ECONOMY The latest LMD-PEPPERCUBE Business Confidence Index (BCI) survey, conducted in the first week of April, reflects a marked decline in economic optimism, extending the negative sentiment reported in March.

Less than a quarter of polled respondents (24%) now expect the economy to ‘improve’ over the next 12 months – a steep 23 point drop from March.

And 39 percent believe that conditions will ‘stay the same,’ up five points from the previous month.

A further 37 percent anticipate that the economy will ‘get worse,’ marking a notable shift – down 18 points from March.

SALES VOLUMES Expectations surrounding sales volumes have also weakened. Far less than half of the surveyed population (43%) anticipate an improvement over the next 12 months, compared to 51 percent in the month prior.

An equal proportion (43%) expect their sales volumes to ‘stay the same,’ reflecting a three point increase, while 14 of the 100 respondents surveyed by the pollsters believe sales volumes will ‘get worse’ – up five percentage points from the preceding month.

And half of the participants (50%), down nine points from the preceding month, report an ‘increase’ in sales volumes – down nine points from March.

Additionally, four in 10 (40%) say their sales volumes ‘stayed the same’ (an eight point rise from March’s 32%). And only 10 percent report a decline – up marginally by one point from the nine percent a month prior.

Looking ahead to the next three months, sentiment has softened further: nearly a third (30%) of respondents project an increase, which reflects a sharp 23 point drop from March’s 53 percent.

Meanwhile, 48 percent of the sample population say their sales volumes will ‘stay the same’ (up 8%) while 22 percent anticipate their numbers to ‘get worse’ over the next three months – a 15 point increase.

INVESTMENT CLIMATE Confidence in the investment milieu remains subdued with only six percent of respondents viewing the outlook as ‘very good’ – against 10 percent in March.

However, the proportion that says the future looks ‘good’ slipped by four percentage points to 24 percent. And 47 percent describe the investment outlook as ‘fair,’ reflecting a modest two percentage point gain from the previous month.

Meanwhile, 18 percent view the investment climate as ‘poor’ or ‘very poor’ – that’s a three point rise from the preceding month.

EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS Nearly a quarter of poll participants (24%) say they intend to ‘increase’ their staff numbers – a substantial 19 point decline from March.

And more than half of those surveyed intend to maintain current workforce levels (up 15%) while 11 percent expect to downsize in the next six months, marking a four point increase from a month ago.

– LMD