THE ECONOMY
ECONOMIC SENTIMENT WAVERS
Businesspeople downgrade their hopes of brighter prospects from a month ago
A notably cautious economic and business outlook has settled over corporates with PepperCube Consultants reporting a more tempered perspective in biz circles. This is line with the mighty fall in business confidence in April.
THE ECONOMY The latest LMD-PEPPERCUBE Business Confidence Index (BCI) survey, conducted in the first week of April, saw participants’ optimism about the economy ‘improving’ over the next 12 months dwindle, registering a seven percentage point decline from March’s 73 percent to around a third (66%).
However, a quarter (25%) expect the economy to ‘stay the same,’ marking a six percent increase; and around one in 10 (9%) anticipate it will ‘get worse’ – up from eight percent in the month prior.
SALES VOLUMES The downward shift in salespeoples’ sentiment has persisted for a second consecutive month with only 78 percent of polled executives saying they expect an improvement in sales volumes over the next 12 months.
This represents a six point shrinkage from March – a continuation of the downtrend that began in February, following a period of growing optimism. And 10 percent of survey participants believe their sales numbers will ‘stay the same,’ down by two points from 12 percent in the preceding month.
Meanwhile, 60 percent of respondents report an ‘increase’ in sales volumes compared to the previous month, which represents a massive 16 percent fall from the 76 percent recorded in March.
Additionally, 19 percent say their volumes ‘stayed the same,’ reflecting a four point spike from the previous month (15%). And 21 percent report a decline in sales volumes, which is a notable jump from only nine percent a month ago.
Looking ahead, optimism continues to wane – expectations of higher sales volumes over the next three months have fallen by six percentage points to 67 percent – down from 73 percent in March.
Twenty-three percent of the sample population believe their sales volumes will ‘stay the same,’ marking a modest one point uptick, while 10 percent expect their numbers to ‘get worse’ over the next three months – which is the first such increase, following three months at only five percent.
INVESTMENT CLIMATE In contrast, the investment climate has improved marginally, rising to seven percent in April. This follows a sharp decline from 27 percent in January to a mere five percent in March.
Those viewing the outlook as ‘good’ declined by two percentage points to less than three in 10 (28%). And 46 percent continue to believe the investment outlook is ‘fair,’ as in the month prior.
The proportion of respondents rating the outlook as ‘poor’ or ‘very poor’ meanwhile, has risen to nearly one in five (19%) compared to March’s 13 percent.
EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS Thirty-six percent of businesses say they plan to ‘increase’ their staff numbers, which reflects a fall of 10 points from month prior, while a clear majority (54%) intend to maintain the status quo – a six percentage point rise from the month prior.
And 10 percent say they may consider downsizing in the next six months.
