STATE OF THE NATION
VIEWPOINTS
SENSE OF SEHNSUCHT IN SRI LANKA OF OLD
Wijith DeChickera senses an island state on the cusp of potential yet unrealised change yearning for a past that is making the present tense
A brace of bygone months brought our beloved islanders bucketfuls of memories both good and bad. In July, these were even ugly as the time machine that is social media rehashed the apocalypse that gripped our nation state, which imploded after simmering ethno-linguistic tensions of decades erupted into the violent conflagration of 1983.
And it left a legacy of terror, for citizens to contend with over the next 26 years and more…
But August poured balm over the wounds of an island race – yes, there is one, if only we could see it – with a medley of reminiscences about the way we were…
From Facebook and other portals into the past came echoes of our past glory of late as doyens of state, diplomacy, sporting triumphs and commercial enterprises passed away, stirring up sentiments of true patriotism that transcends so-called race, creed and ‘religio-cultural’ markers.
We may have to turn to matters more mundane such as fiscal management however, if we’re to get a better sense of the state of the nation as warm fuzzy feelings about erstwhile accomplishments could cloud our judgement about the dire straits we may still face in the hard yards ahead.
That rocky road is the only path ahead, whatever our immortal longings for freedom from fiduciary matters may be as regards the IMF.
And remaining true to the terms and conditions the International Monetary Fund has imposed on our only recently bankrupted nation through its 17th programme for Sri Lanka, and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) in several tranches, which are doing yeoman service in bailing us out bucket by bucket.
For one, as then First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF Gita Gopinath sounded a caution when she visited Sri Lanka recently, the world at large and our region in general – the azimuth of the Asian apparel manufacturing industry – is facing “a considerable amount of uncertainty.”
Not least because of trade policy under pressure globally, and tariffs “shifting up and down and sideways” at the whim and fancy of the US’ mercurial Trump administration.
While the real impact on the world economy has been characteristically hard to crystallise, despite the world’s lender of last resort downgrading global growth prospects to 2.8 percent (from 3.3%) for this year, the fallout for smaller nations such as Sri Lanka that are struggling to emerge to the brighter, sunlit uplands of stability from rigorous debt restructuring is going to take a far more severe toll in the short to medium terms.
This will no doubt be compounded by shifts in financial market volatility, making borrowing costs very high for many countries and placing a Damocles’ sword over every Sri Lankan’s head in 2028 when the moratorium on our sovereign debt repayments expires.
Be that as it may, and as Gopinath herself made it clear, the data for the first quarter of the year offer some cause for cautious optimism – indicating as it does that there is a modicum of resilience in many economies across the world, and it is incumbent on the regime in situ in Colombo to avail itself of every available opportunity to make the most of any tailwinds that could speed Sri Lanka on its way to stability on the flight to a fuller economic recovery.
So while the signs are good – a better fiscal milieu all round, substantial tax revenues being collected, inflation down from 70 percent two years ago (to 0.3% in July) and stronger governance protocols in place – the tightening of the belt may have to become much worse before it becomes better, in addition to the all-important boosting of forex reserves to that magical US$ 10+ billion mark… aspirationally speaking!
In similar vein… anticorruption action that bites and not only barks; bringing back trust of government in public perceptions; and alleviating poverty levels, which – at nearly 25 percent of the population – is still too high.
A sense of ‘sehnsucht’ (German, ‘yearning’ or ‘desire’) is not a bad thing for a blessed isle craving a boon from its friends abroad and lovers on the world stage at large.
If you prefer ‘saudade’ (Portuguese, ‘longing’ or ‘craving’), that would do as well for a commonwealth in need of dreams that evade its grasp – if only to spur it on to greater heights or at least reach its full potential… or what’s heaven or nirvana for?
Yet if these nostalgic inklings are not based on reality or backed by common sense and practical action, Sri Lanka’s southern summer dreams in the tropical sun are going to evaporate – or freeze fiscally and financially speaking – when the dread times of 2008 (that equator of equilibrium regained or chaos revisited) and beyond enter the fray.
Therefore, ambition must be made of sterner stuff than dreams, rhetoric or demagoguery if another winter of discontent is not to be enforced on an island dreaming in the wan light we’re all enjoying right now… with nary a thought (it would seem) for the future.
